An industry saying suggests Oracle’s profits calculations are always optimistic, which doesn’t concern investors. Recently, praises were abundant as Oracle’s projected revenues sent its shares soaring over a 27 percent rise, while co-founder Larry Ellison edges closer to surpassing Elon Musk’s wealth. Yet, the numbers are puzzling. The buzz among analysts rests on Oracle’s anticipated revenues from pending performance contracts in the first quarter of its 2026 fiscal year, now tallying up to $455 billion.

This is up by 359 percent from the previous year, as reported by CEO Safra Catz, highlighting the growth allowing adjustment to cloud infrastructure financial plans. Projections anticipate an increase from $18 billion to $144 billion over the next four years.

The financial surge owes to alliances with AI giants like OpenAI and Nvidia, contrasted with Oracle’s traditional expansion through database market dominance and acquisitions. Oracle’s cloud infrastructure sector grew by 55 percent, outpacing cloud applications with 11 percent growth.

Ellison’s enthusiasm underscores AI’s transformative impact, projecting its role in various automation tasks. However, lots of this AI demand is speculative, raising viability concerns. For example, OpenAI, despite high-profile operations, anticipates an $8 billion cash loss in 2025.

Oracle’s fiscal success hinges on sustained AI demand. However, as experts caution, not all AI model providers will sustain long-term demand. Cloud giants might limit their reliance on Oracle once their capacities suffice, making Oracle’s financial bets uncertain.

As Oracle’s infrastructure capabilities flourish, sustained revenue depends on AI-driven clients whose financial sources remain shaky. The future for Oracle and its investors clings to this cloud of uncertainty, necessitating cautious optimism.