In 2026, memory shortages are projected to impact PC shipments as manufacturers prioritize lucrative AI infrastructure components. The overall PC market growth in 2025 was positive, but memory supply constraints began to exert upward pressure on prices by mid-year. By December, vendors were already preparing for higher costs, curbing their shipment expectations for 2026. From early to late 2025, primary memory and storage costs jumped between 40% and 70%, driving up consumer prices, reported Omdia’s Principal Analyst Ben Yeh.

Recent reports highlight that memory manufacturers are reallocating resources towards higher-margin server DRAM and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for AI-driven servers and accelerators. Major PC vendors, like Dell and Lenovo, acknowledged these unprecedented cost hikes in December, choosing to either raise prices or risk shipping PCs with reduced memory configurations, potentially underwhelming buyers.

With tight supplies for 2026, the industry is focusing on high-end SKUs while slimming down mid- to low-tier offerings to safeguard profits. However, limited memory availability means vendors’ shipment outcomes will depend on their negotiation strengths and supplier relationships, added Yeh.

This shortage is expected to stir intense competition among PC manufacturers for available memory, where the highest bidders will likely prevail, further inflating prices. TrendForce has decreased its global notebook shipment forecast for 2026, predicting a 5.4% decline compared to the previous year, totaling an estimated 173 million units.

Additionally, elevated costs might deter Windows 11 adoption, as the OS is more resource-intensive than Windows 10. Prospective buyers might shy away from upgrading their systems due to high replacement expenses.

Typically, when demand surpasses supply, manufacturers scale up production, usually leading to price stabilization. Yet, analysts don’t foresee this typical boom-bust cycle playing out this time. Despite challenges, a survey by Omdia in late 2025 found that 57% of B2B channel vendors still anticipate growth in 2026, reflecting an optimistic outlook.

In 2025, Lenovo led the PC shipment market, claiming just over 25%. HP followed with a 20% share, while Dell, Apple, and Asus held 15%, 10%, and 7.2%, respectively.