Apple stands poised to overtake Samsung as the global leader in smartphone shipments, according to analyst firm Counterpoint. Samsung has consistently dominated since 2011, but recent iPhone 17 sales are changing the landscape. Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang highlights that two additional factors are driving an increase in Apple’s market share. “The wave of consumers upgrading from COVID-19 era smartphones is one key factor,” Wang noted. “Additionally, approximately 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold from 2023 to mid-2025, creating a user base likely to upgrade within the next few years. This demand is expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth.” Despite Apple’s AI features being underwhelming to date, Wang believes the company will soon enhance these capabilities, driving further upgrades. Counterpoint also forecasts a significant iPhone redesign by 2027 to commemorate its 20th anniversary. Furthermore, the easing of trade tensions between the USA and China has benefitted iPhone pricing, keeping them accessible in the U.S. and enhancing Apple’s supply chain resilience and market presence in emerging regions. Counterpoint predicts that iPhone shipments will surge by 10% in 2025, giving Apple a market share of 19.4%, compared to Samsung’s 18.7%. The analysts do not foresee Samsung catching up before 2029. Although Apple doesn’t dominate the OS sector, its affluent user base ensures that other technology companies continue to support iOS, macOS, and iPadOS users.